These are terrifying times – sure to define us as Americans in the months ahead. While we are hunkered down in our homes, hoping to avoid infection with the COVID-19 virus that is ravaging the world, we have time to learn new skills, like giving each other haircuts, cooking meals, doing puzzles, and playing board games. And thank God for the internet so we can binge watch shows and connect with each other on Zoom and WhatsApp!
I also have time to read about, and write about, this historic period of time.
I don’t know what the future holds for our health or economy, but when markets rise or decline during normal market swings the Fed eases or tightens credit to slow or stimulate economic growth. Remember when the “roaring 20s” economy (when everyone was buying stock on margin and prices kept going up – until they didn’t anymore) crashed into a depression under Hoover? It took FDR to get people back to work with the CCC and WPA work programs, and eventually WWII, to get our people working, paid, and liquidity back into the economy. That was followed by a long period of prosperity as the Greatest Generation built homes, interstate highways, had babies (us), formed unions, went to college (many on the GI Bill), women stayed in the workforce – and remember, under Eisenhower (Republican) top tax rates were 90%! The tech boom/crash in the 1980s was similar, but smaller – buy Enron! You can’t lose! Tech companies were worth more than Ford and General Motors, but never made a dime.
And of course, the 2008 crash, after house prices kept going up, up, up. Everyone was making money so nobody wanted to burst the bubble. Until unrestrained greed, and lack of oversight, finally caused the house of cards to collapse once again. Obama inherited a disaster, but he kept many of Bush’s top financial appointments in the Fed and Cabinet to get us through the crises since they were all very seasoned financial experts. They bailed out Wall Street and Detroit (to protect the banks and manufacturing), bought up toxic investments to put liquidity back into the market, and generally followed steps FDR took to get through the depression – get people jobs, and money in their hands, so they can spend and become confident again. Many fiscal controls were put in place after the depression that were loosened or removed during the Reagan/Clinton years. We just don’t learn. Obama tried to put those controls back in place after the 2008 crash, but Republicans wouldn’t pass many of them. Still, the markets started coming back in 2009 and kept going up. So did employment. So did housing. Even deficits came down under Obama.
Then a man who stokes fear and hate, inherited his fortune but still managed to go bankrupt many times, rode the wave of anger through a bizarre election to win the electoral college and move into the White House. Being a transactional businessman (rather than an intellectual) and a narcissist (who only cares about his meticulously manufactured image), he had to keep the numbers going UP, UP, UP! Simple, if they go UP, everybody WINS! Until they don’t (like the Roaring 20s, like the Tech Boom of the 80s, and the Housing Boom). Trump inherited a great economy in 2017, but it was showing signs of age. Bulls don’t last forever, but Trump had to keep this one going so he could please his base and take credit for the longest expansion in US history (even though 7 of those years were due to the actions and policies of the Obama administration).
There is no reason to run TRILLION dollar deficits during boom times and full employment when everyone is paying taxes. There is no reason to give tax cuts to the wealthy when you are running trillion dollar deficits. Taxes should have been going up on those making all the money (and being cut for the working class – who run out and spend every penny they make adding liquidity to the marketplace). Trump has been throwing gasoline on the economic fire to keep it burning brightly for the Red Hats who only read bumper stickers (not books), get their information off Fox News from entertainers and talking heads (not from newspapers and investigative reporters – “Fake News!”), and mimic Trump’s anger toward anyone who doesn’t look and feel like him (an old, angry, out of shape, white guy). Of course, Trump is smarter than them, he’s a Carnival Barker – a slick master of the art of bait and switch – follow the shiny object while I distract you from what I’m really doing! Everything is a hoax. You don’t need my taxes. You don’t need me investigated – I told you I’m perfect. And the Red Hats believe him.
Now he is faced with something he can’t bullshit his way through. A worldwide pandemic followed by an economic collapse. All the gains Trump says his brilliance brought to Wall Street were wiped out in one week – and that’s just the start. Millions of jobs were lost overnight (and we can’t get them back until there is a vaccine that allows people to go outside) – and that’s probably 18 months away.
The Red Hats deny climate change, argue against vaccinations for their kids, worry about having the 10 Commandments removed from the courthouse lawn, put their unfettered gun rights ahead of the carnage of continued mass shootings, and distrust science. How’s that working out now? I’m fine with people having their own beliefs and opinions, but I’m not ok with one group telling another how they must behave. If you don’t believe in abortion, don’t get an abortion. My belief in a woman’s right to decide what to do with her own body, and terminate a pregnancy in a safe medical environment, does not prevent another person from choosing not to have an abortion. Overturning Roe v. Wade would take away the right of a woman to choose for herself.
The number one priority for EVERYONE is social distancing and self isolation immediately! It’s the only tool we have to break the rate of infection from overwhelming our healthcare system. Priority #2 is to get antivirals to help treat the illness and have our scientists discover, test, and distribute a vaccine. Priority #3 is get money into people’s hands every month so liquidity gets flowing in place of lost paychecks. And do that NOW. Only when people are healthy can we start rebuilding our economy from the ground up.
When this is over the United States, and the world, will look and feel different. There is a lot of good that will come out of this moment in time: families and friends are drawn closer, “things” mean less than relationships and health, people are learning to cook at home again, we are finding out which employers take care of employees and customers, we are more aware of who real heroes are (doctors, nurses, grocery store checkout clerks – not Rush Limbaugh), we’ll believe science is more important than endless political blather, we’ll read more books and trust fewer carnival barkers on TV and in the White House.
Many people will die during this crisis. While nature has a way of culling out the weakest from the herd (uninformed people who think this is a hoax and fill the bars and beaches at spring break, anti-vaxers who don’t believe in science, the “Don’t Tread On Me” conspiracy theorists – the list is long), they will also take their infections back to their grandma who is weaker and more at risk.
So yes, I think this will be a historic collapse in many ways. And it will affect all countries. Any slowing of the collapse will depend on some key people making some very critical decisions at the right time. It will depend on researchers finding breakthroughs that lead to a vaccine quickly. It will take people helping people. It will take getting liquidity into the economy immediately. If social unrest breaks out from fear and frustration we’ll know the End Times are here – the Red Hats, with all their guns, will take what they want at the expense of tearing the social fabric away from the rest of us. In which case, I’ll go volunteer at a hospital and refuse a ventilator when I get sick. So be it. I did the best I could to be a participant in a society that tried to benefit everyone.
I am reading “The Splendid and the Vile” by Erik Larson – an amazing account of Churchill’s character and personality as Prime Minister during the bombing of London. The author did extensive research on firsthand accounts from people who were close to him and kept diaries. It’s not a book of fiction, or a biography, but rather it provides insight into how the man confronted the biggest crisis of his time.
Churchill’s whole career had led to that moment in history, and he overcame the doubts of King George, others in the British cabinet who served under Chamberlin (before Churchill), Joseph Kennedy (our ambassador who was despised by many Brits), and even FDR who was worried about Churchill’s reputation as a flamboyant and chaotic personality during times of crisis. Of course, we know from history, he harangued and finagled the support of FDR, galvanized a nation, oversaw all military operations, and led Britain to victory.
The book clearly illustrates the personality traits that Churchill used to manage and lead those around him, inspire a nation, and fan their resolve while bombs rained down on London. The complete absence of these qualities in Trump is troubling. He does not lead, he intimidates (You’re Fired!). He does not inspire, he threatens. He does not encourage, he belittles. He does not create solutions, he tears down possibilities. He does not gather, he divides. He does not truthfully inform, he lies.
We have had great presidents lead this nation through times of peril – Washington, Lincoln, and FDR for sure. We have had others (we seldom recall) who were dismal failures – Andrew Johnson, Pierce, Buchanan, Hoover, and Harding. Nixon and W are on a list of their own while historians still evaluate their impacts on history.
Trump will certainly make the list. His “Wall” will become a partially built, rusted relic to ignorance and the period in American history when the Red Hats came out from under their rocks and ran a nation into the abyss.
Hitler led a similar mob of book burners with the promise of greatness and a Third Reich that would last a thousand years. They quickly fell in line and goose stepped in front of Adolph, arms extended in salute to their fearless leader (Sieg Heil! Make America Great Again!) – the Carnival Barker of his day – all the while ignoring the stench and smoke billowing out from the stacks at Auchwitz. So many knew, but their fear kept them quiet, until the sins of the followers could no longer be hidden. The world stood up, found their voices, and screamed “enough!” Nations mobilized and joined together as formidable allies. They collectively fought and died for what was right, to defeat what was wrong. Some things are that simple. In a matter of years the Reich was in ruins.
Great powers always decay and fail by their own hand. My hope is that people wake up and scream truth to power. Pay attention. Read. Vote. Reach out to others. Participate. Create. Solve. Roll up their sleeves. Turn off TV and pick up a book. Learn. Discuss. Listen to others. Respect others. Embrace others. Share. Innovate. Trust science and knowledge and wisdom and experience. Distrust internet memes and talking heads and bumper sticker politics, and social media influencers. Be skeptical of all politicians. Question everything. But also run for school board or city council and help govern on the local level – they are not the Deep State, they are your neighbors – and they are the future state legislators, House and Senate congressional representatives, and will use their public service experience to lead us in the future.
I am confident we will get through this unfolding catastrophe and believe we will become stronger and more aware in the process. I might not be around long enough to see how this changes us in the long term, but I am filled with hope and optimism when I see young people pull together and rise to the occasion.
My generation will take it’s bow and exit Stage Left as the curtain of time comes down, but we are followed by a new generation with a different vibe. Their music. Their dance. Their games. Their new societal rules. New ideas. New tools Fewer McDs and more Brew Pubs. More collaboration and fewer fences. More Tiny Houses and fewer McMansions. Bluer skies and greener power.
Yes, we will survive, but like all generations before us, it is now our turn to drop what we are doing and step up to this challenge, letting go of creature comforts that we thought were so important last week, suddenly realizing how tenuous and fragile our world really is.
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